UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan
Also called UFC Vegas 122.
Card last checked: Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 5:40 AM CT stale: over 48h old, re-check UFC.com
Start times
Times through Oct 31 are daylight time (EDT/CDT); from Nov 1 they're standard (EST/CST). ET minus one hour is always CT.
The card
Card notes
- Card unchanged on UFC.com as of Sat Oct 10, 5:35 AM CT: 12 bouts, all on Paramount+. No fight-week cancellations reported.
- Allen vs Duncan was originally a three-rounder on UFC 332 in Salt Lake City before moving here as a five-round headliner. It's Duncan's first UFC main event.
- Official weigh-ins (Fri Oct 9): all 24 fighters weighed in. Allen 186, Duncan 185. Three misses: Ismael Bonfim (163.5), Ketlen Souza (117) and Brendson Ribeiro (208.5). All three bouts go ahead at catchweight.
Where to watch
- Paramount+ — Every 2026 UFC event, any plan. No US pay-per-view.
Disclosure: I may earn a commission if you sign up or buy through links marked ★ on this page, at no extra cost to you. Right now these are plain links; no affiliate programs are active yet. How this works.
Card news
- Three misses at UFC Vegas 122 weigh-ins; main event intactFri, Oct 9, 2026, 2:25 PM CT
Odds: opening vs current
Odds snapshot: Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 5:35 AM CT stale: over 12h old, re-check the books
| Fighter | Open | Oct 8 range | Current (median) | Range | Move (implied %) | FanDuel | Caesars | BetRivers | BetWay | Unibet | Kalshi* | UFC.com |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | -210 | -120 / -138 | -122 | -125 / -115 | ▼ 68% → 55% | -122 | -115 | -125 | -120 | -125 | -121 | -140 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | +180 | +102 / +108 | +102 | -105 / +104 | ▲ 36% → 50% | +104 | -105 | +102 | -105 | +102 | +101 | +120 |
| Matheus Camilo | -185 | -180 / -205 | -190 | -205 / -188 | → flat | -190 | -205 | -190 | -188 | -190 | -191 | -200 |
| Jai Herbert | +161 | +150 / +158 | +150 | +150 / +170 | ▲ 38% → 40% | +162 | +170 | +150 | +150 | +150 | +158 | +165 |
| Loopy Godinez | -190 | -225 / -265 | -240 | -250 / -225 | ▲ 66% → 71% | -240 | -230 | -250 | -225 | -250 | -240 | -225 |
| Ketlen Souza | +165 | +175 / +200 | +195 | +175 / +198 | ▼ 38% → 34% | +198 | +190 | +195 | +175 | +195 | +198 | +185 |
| Andre Fili | -175 | -150 / -165 | -150 | -152 / -143 | ▼ 64% → 60% | -152 | -150 | -143 | -150 | -143 | -155 | -155 |
| Kai Kamaka III | +153 | +120 / +132 | +120 | +116 / +128 | ▲ 40% → 45% | +128 | +125 | +116 | +120 | +116 | +123 | +130 |
| Malcolm Wellmaker | -240 | -225 / -250 | -210 | -225 / -210 | ▼ 71% → 68% | -210 | -225 | -210 | -225 | -210 | -209 | -225 |
| Otari Tanzilovi | +200 | +175 / +190 | +175 | +165 / +185 | ▲ 33% → 36% | +176 | +185 | +165 | +175 | +165 | +173 | +185 |
Prelims: range across FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, BetWay and Unibet (BestFightOdds, Oct 10, 5:35 AM CT)
| Fighter | Range | Fighter | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Walker | -305 / -333 | Gerald Meerschaert | +235 / +250 |
| Felipe Franco | -350 / -410 | Brendson Ribeiro | +260 / +320 |
| Leon Shahbazyan | -144 / -163 | Niko Price | +122 / +130 |
| Francisco Prado | -142 / -150 | Ismael Bonfim | +120 / +125 |
| RJ Harris | -333 / -380 | Allen Frye Jr. | +250 / +300 |
| Alice Pereira | -125 / -150 | Daria Zhelezniakova | +105 / +120 |
| Melissa Gatto | -116 / -125 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | +100 / -103 |
American odds. "Open" is the BestFightOdds opening line. "Current" is the median of the listed sportsbooks; *Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market, not a sportsbook, shown for reference. Implied % includes the book's margin. Lines move constantly: confirm with the book before acting. Sources: BestFightOdds event page (labels it "UFC 332") · UFC.com event page
Line moves
- Allen opened -210 and now sits at -115 to -125 across the five books (median -122). Duncan went from +180 to a median of +102, and Caesars and BetWay both have Duncan a slight favorite at -105. Little change since Oct 8.
- Kamaka has kept shortening: +153 at open, +116 to +128 now. Fili is -143 to -152.
- Godinez is still well past her -190 opener (-225 to -250); Souza +175 to +198. Souza missed weight by 1 lb on Oct 9.
- Prelims: Prado was roughly a pick'em on Oct 8 (-110/-120) and is now -142 to -150, with Bonfim +120 to +125. That move came after Bonfim weighed 163.5 lb on Oct 9, 7.5 lb over.
- Camilo/Herbert and Wellmaker/Tanzilovi are roughly flat. Wellmaker has come in a touch from his -240 opener (-210 to -225).
Observations on price only. No inside information, no picks. A line moving doesn't tell you why it moved.
Disclosure: I may earn a commission if you sign up or buy through links marked ★ on this page, at no extra cost to you. Right now these are plain links; no affiliate programs are active yet. How this works.
Preview: Allen vs Duncan: the briefing
| Tale of the tape | Brendan "All In" Allen | Christian Leroy "CLD" Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-7 (15-4 UFC) | 15-2 (8-2 UFC) |
| UFC ranking | #4 (UFC.com event page) | #10 |
| Age / Height / Reach | 30 / 6'2" / 75" | 31 / 6'2" / 79" |
| Base | BJJ black belt; 14 sub wins, 6 KO | Switch-stance striker; 10 KO, 1 sub |
| Streak | 3 wins | 5 wins |
| Fights out of | Delray Beach, FL (from Louisiana, born SC) | Gloucester, England (ex-Cage Warriors champ) |
Records and streaks as of Thu, Oct 8, 2026, 12:00 PM CT.
BLUF
Striker vs grappler, five rounds, at the APEX. If Allen drags it down early, it’s his kind of fight. If it stays at range, it’s Duncan’s. The market has been walking toward Duncan all week, and nobody has reported a reason why.
The matchup
Allen is a grappler first: a back-taker and rear-naked-choke specialist, with the second-most submissions in UFC middleweight history behind Gerald Meerschaert. He’ll trade on the feet, he has deep cardio, and he’s been five rounds before. The soft spots: striking defense around 47–48%, and his takedowns have been hit-and-miss against good strikers.
Duncan is long, athletic, and accurate: 57–58% significant-strike accuracy, about 2.36 absorbed per minute. Spinning elbows, backfists, flying knees. The soft spots: takedown defense, and he has never fought five rounds.
Why this fight
- Announced Sep 1. It started as a three-rounder on UFC 332 in Salt Lake City and moved here as a five-round headliner. First UFC main event for Duncan.
- Duncan’s coach Mark Weir says Allen was “top of Christian’s list” on the five names they sent the UFC.
- Allen is fighting down the rankings again. He’s been calling for Dricus du Plessis and says he took this because nobody higher was available and he can’t afford to sit: “I don’t have these sponsors paying me thousands of dollars a month.”
- Allen also has a freestyle wrestling match booked against Alexander Shlemenko at RAF 14 on Oct 23.
Trash talk (the polite kind)
Allen: “The only way he wins is to catch me… If it goes past the second… you’ll see the clear runaway.” He called Duncan “very green” but said he has “that dog in him.” Duncan called Allen a “young veteran”: “he has experience, but I have evolution and hunger on my side.”
What the line says
Opened around Allen -210 / Duncan +180 at offshore books (MMAOddsBreaker). By Oct 8 it was roughly -120 to -140 on Allen at US books, with BetWay making Duncan a slim favorite. CageOracle: “We couldn’t find a report that explains the move… no weight, injury or camp news for either man.” So it reads as steady money, not a news event. Most published pickers still lean Allen on the five rounds and cardio. CageOracle’s stats-only model has Duncan at 62%.
What I’d watch for
- The first takedown attempt. When it comes and whether it sticks tells you which fight you’re watching.
- Rounds 3 to 5. Duncan has never been there. Allen has. Pace and breathing will show it.
- Range control. TC 3-25.150 says it plainly: “The No. 1 element of a fight is range.” Whoever owns the distance owns the fight.
Career history: past fight outcomes (spoilers for older fights)
Allen: won Contender Series (Jul 2019); debuted with a submission of Kevin Holland (Oct 2019); TKO losses to Sean Strickland (Nov 2020) and Chris Curtis (Dec 2021); rear-naked chokes over Krzysztof Jotko, Andre Muniz, Bruno Silva and Paul Craig (2022–23); split decision over Curtis in a five-round main event (Apr 2024); decision losses to Nassourdine Imavov (Sep 2024) and Anthony Hernandez (Feb 2025); then UD over Marvin Vettori (UFC 318), a TKO of Reinier de Ridder after R4 (Oct 2025), and UD over Edmen Shahbazyan (Jun 6, 2026). 4-0 in UFC main events.
Duncan: Cage Warriors middleweight champ (flying-knee TKO of Djati Melan, 2022); UFC debut win over Dusko Todorovic (UFC 286, 2023); decision losses to Armen Petrosyan (2023) and Gregory Rodrigues (UFC 304, Jul 2024); five straight since: UD Andrey Pulyaev, spinning-elbow KO of Eryk Anders, spinning-backfist KO of Marco Tulio, UD Roman Dolidze (Mar 2026), UD Jared Cannonier (Jul 18, 2026). Never submitted or KO’d.
Sources: UFC.com fight-by-fight preview · MMA Junkie: booking (Sep 1) · Sherdog: Allen · Sherdog: Duncan · Bloody Elbow: Weir wish list · CageOracle line analysis · MMAOddsBreaker opening odds · Wikipedia: Brendan Allen · Wikipedia: Christian Leroy Duncan
Results
Results: spoilers (tap to show)
This card hasn't happened yet. Results are posted here, collapsed, after the event.
Sources
- UFC.com event page
- UFC.com fight-by-fight preview
- UFC.com ticket/time release (Sep 29)
- MiddleEasy (venue change)
- UFC.com official weigh-in results (Oct 9)
- MMA Fighting weigh-in results (Oct 9)
- Sherdog weigh-in results (Oct 9)
Cards change: injuries, weight misses, reshuffles. Re-checked daily, every four hours on fight week.